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"holdout-weakness", "label": "Holdout weakness: candidate is not validated", "candidate": { "shares": 0, "contracts": 5, "strike": 80, "expiryDays": 30, "staged": false }, "sampleCount": 9, "leaveOneOutMeanReturn": -0.00657701046471415, "leaveOneOutBreaches": 0, "chronologicalReturn": -0.011914352295425331, "chronologicalFeasible": false, "chronologicalViolations": [ "Tail-loss limit" ], "cashReturn": 0.009911813524070334, "reasons": [ "The displayed allocation is selected in sample; holdouts evaluate the selection procedure using independently refitted allocations, not this exact final allocation.", "Selected cohorts and synthetic premiums cannot establish validated alpha or certify live allocation.", "Leave-one-out mean does not exceed cash.", "Chronological holdout return does not exceed cash.", "Chronological holdout breaches constraints." ] } }, "warnings": [ "Descriptive available-history comparisons, not causal estimates or forecasts. The initial verified 90-day pool already excludes unavailable or unverifiable histories, including delisted issuers. Extending that pool does not recover those missing companies; survivor selection can materially change results.", "Entry is the first trading-day close. Six and twelve months are holding periods from that close, not delayed entry strategies. Month-end anniversaries are clamped to the final day of the target month.", "Price returns exclude dividends, trading costs and taxes. Excess returns are percentage-point differences, not risk-adjusted alpha.", "Each benchmark pair uses the same actual IPO and benchmark starting and ending closing dates; endpoints precede or equal anniversaries and are at most four calendar days stale. Interior gaps over four calendar days are rejected.", "Horizon maturity conservatively requires its anniversary on or before the latest completed benchmark close and asOf. Each horizon has independent coverage.", "The constant matched twelve-month sample requires both benchmarks at all three horizons; it separates changing sample composition from changes in holding period, but retains selection bias.", "Histories must be split-quarantined upstream; this analytics engine cannot infer corporate actions from closing prices alone." ] }